Tuesday, January 31, 2012

February 2-6 Major Snowstorm Discussion **UPDATED TODAY**

We have a lot to discuss, so let's get down to it.

12z GFS ENS. Hour 120
12z GFS ENS. Hour 132
12z GFS ENS. Hour 144
I think we are close enough to the storm's occurrence to stop using the ensembles and start using the models themselves. We will post on them, anyways. The GFS ENS are projecting the snow to fall in the Plains into the Midwest and Ohio Valley. I'm thinking that the Plains snowfall looks to be a good bet, with a strip of snow into the Midwest. The Ohio Valley has yet to be worked out. Right now, looking at the 12z GFS, it shows snow hitting the Plains and midwest, but not the Ohio Valley. See below.
I'm thinking that this snowfall forecast looks like a good solution. It shows a snowstorm for the Plains and a strip of 6-12 inches of snow into the Midwest. But there are things that have to be looked at to confirm this.

The PNA forecasts indicate a strong PNA developing as the storm is starting to form. This could be a problem, as it is possible the ridge forms when the storm is already past the area where the PNA ridge forms. In that scenario, a Northeast storm scenario would look to be unlikely, as a +PNA directs the jet stream to the Northeast, but cannot bring this storm there if it is already in the Plains after the PNA forms.

Precipitation Patterns with MJO phases
The MJO is projected to move into a strong period of Phases 6 and 7. Phase 6 strongly favors above normal precipitation in the Great Lakes and Midwest into parts of the Ohio Valley and South Central US, leading me to think that a Phase 6 MJO develops a Southeast Ridge to divert the storm towards the upper Northeast and Ohio Valley, therefore giving precipitation to the Midwest. Phase 7 eases off the ridge and precipitation, but still shows above normal precip anomalies in the Midwest and Plains.

Model Diagnosis
Will not be using UKMET/ECMWF/GEM in my forecast as they have been inconsistent and are not finding a solution. Prefer GFS out of the most consistency I have seen. Eventually, a SREF blend may be preferred, especially today as verification at hour 72 forecasts can be actually very good.

In my opinion, the +PNA should come too late for the storm system to be diverted into the Northeast. That said, an increasingly strong MJO Phase 6 would favor the storm to move into the Plains if it cannot travel along the +PNA jet stream that goes through the South. As of now, I see the storm moving into the Plains and subsequently being pushed east into the nation's Midsection, much like the ECMWF Ensembles have been showing. Checking out the HPC, I'm finding drastically increased precipitation forecasts in the Plains, leading me to think that confidence in a Plains solution has grown. The CMC model is further north than the GFS and will have to be watched.

MY THOUGHTS
Over 6 inches of snow is very well possible in the Plains into the Midwest, with the west central Plains in the big target zone. We outlined a lower confidence area in the event that the storm ends up farther south than anticipated. The low pressure system is going to be moving through Oklahoma and kentucky before speeding offshore.

Side notes:
*Several upcoming model runs will be equipped with observation data from specialized airplane flights that drop items recording data in the storm-to-be that is then ingested into a certain model run (typically the 0z or 12z suites).

Any questions may be asked below.
And for the record, I do not expect this solution to change dramatically.
-Andrew

UPDATED February 2-6 Snowstorm Discussion TODAY at 4:00 PM CST


Monday, January 30, 2012

**February 2-6 Potential Significant Snowfall NEW Discussion**

12z GFS total snowfall
The 12z GFS has taken a turn for the disgusting today. It's looking like the GFS is projecting the storm system to become a separate storm of its own and move north and obliterate the Nebraska, Dakotas region.
As you all know, the +PNA and Strong Phase 6 MJO will be contributing to the eventual track and effects of this storm system. Using those major indices, I think this 12z GFS is garbage. Take a look at the ensembles.

12z GFS ENS Hour 120
12z GFS ENS Hour 132
12z GFS ENS Hour 144
To me, this is a much more acceptable solution. The GFS Ensembles are following a strong +PNA lead, whereas the 12z GFS acts like the jet stream shoots north after curving around the +PNA ridge. A +PNA actually takes the storm along the South and takes it up the East Coast. However, a Phase 6 MJO influences the heaviest precipitation into the Lower Great Lakes and interior Midwest. That would land the jet stream in a format very similar to what these 12z GFS Ensembles are showing.

The ECMWF takes a track that in my eyes looks like it takes a more predominantly +PNA track with maybe a slight MJO influence. Here's the ECMWF vs. the ECMWF Ensembles.

12z ECMWF Hour 120
12z ECMWF ENS Hour 120
The ECMWF Ensembles push the storm further north, but also push the warm air northward as well. In the process, the storm looks to be a tad weaker. However, individual ECMWF ensembles may show something else- we do not have access to those individual members, though.

HPC Day 4 Forecast
HPC Day 5 Forecast
The HPC goes along with the ECMWF/GFS Ensemble groups, much to my liking. Personally, the 12z GFS is one to be thrown out. I don't see that solution per the current trends of the teleconnections.

**A side note: Tonight's 0z model runs and tomorrow's 12z model runs will be ones to watch, as they will contain sampling (observation) data from inside the storm-to-be. You can tell the NOAA is watching this storm, because 12z observation data injected from a storm-to-be winter flight is rare.
By the way, the data is gathered from special airplane flights that drop items that record observations in the atmosphere. these observations are injected into the models and thus help solidify their solutions for those runs in that suite (0z or 12z).

MY THOUGHTS
Right now, I do think that the ECMWF/ECMWF ENS are onto something, as is the GFS ENS. I believe that the GFS ENS are banking on a stronger MJO than the ECMWF ENS are, which can be settled as the date for the storm approaches. I am going to go with a ECMWF ENS/GFS ENS blend, as again- group consensus' are better for me than models themselves.
Something I have discovered is that the ECMWF indeed keeps the MJO in Phases 6-7 weaker than the NCEP for the storm timeframe. That said, I think that the stickler for the models will be the MJO strength, as both ensemble groups from the ECMWF/GFS keep the PNA at relatively similar strengths.

I am thinking that the storm will affect the Ohio Valley and take the ECMWF Ensemble direction, where it may eventually hit the Northeast. The NAO will be an interesting piece to watch, as the models are not particularly certain on its fate during the storm.
Any questions may be asked below.

-Andrew

*Update on February 2-6 Snowstorm at 4:00 PM CST Today*

We will be updating on the potential February 2-6 winter storm at 4:00 PM CST this afternoon.
-Andrew

Sunday, January 29, 2012

February 2-6 Potential Significant Snowfall

The latest 18z GFS is printing out a stunning 2 feet of snow for the Great Lakes regions, with widespread 1 foot+ totals across the Northeast and Ohio Valley. This storm has been watched very closely and with this run, the need to monitor this scenario only grows.
At this point it looks like the models are projecting a low pressure system to eject out of the Plains and into the Ohio Valley, where it phases with another strong storm system, thus introducing massive amounts of snow into the Northeast and Ohio Valley.

The PNA looks to be raging positive in this timeframe, leading me to think that this scenario up to the system appearing in the Plains will happen. From then on, it gets a little dicier.
The Arctic Oscillation looks to be moderately negative in this timeframe, enhancing the potential for snow. The NAO looks to me like it may stay positive through this timeframe. The CPC NAO chart, which takes in multiple models, shows that the NAO should be anywhere from neutral to moderately positive in this timeframe. That will have to be closely watched.
A big factor will also be the MJO, forecasted to go into Phase 6 into 7, however the storm should strike in Phase 6 if this verifies. Phase 6 favors the Midwest and Ohio Valley for Precipitation, but also includes parts of the Northeast. This somewhat goes along the MJO lines.
Here's where it gets confusing. The MJO will be strong, meaning its effects will be stronger than usual. At the same time, the PNA will be a strong positive, meaning its effects will also be noticeable. This means that it can come down to these two factors. A closer analysis of the MJO reveals that the heaviest precipitation in a transition of phases 6 to 7 typically occurs in the interior Midwest and lower Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley.
What this 18z GFS has done is combine the +PNA and Phase 6 MJO in an incredible fashion. I believe that if any solution is to work with the PNA and Phase 6 MJO being the main factors, the 18z GFS is the one.

BUT THEN THERE'S MORE!

The GFS Ensembles. As I have claimed this winter, the models are horrific in performance. Thus, I have advocated the use of ensembles throughout. This 18z run is a different story in some aspects for the storm.
Hour 144 18z GFS ENS.
Hour 156 18z GFS ENS.
Hour 180 18z GFS ENS.
The GFS Ensembles have the system bring in more precipitation into the interior Midwest and Ohio Valley than the 18z GFS itself.

My Thoughts
Looking at the MJO in Phase 6, I think that this could go either way. Both the 18z GFS and 18z GFS Ensembles print out very good solutions in my opinion. However, seeing as the MJO will be in a very strong phase, it may win out the PNA to push the storm track and precipitation a tad further west like the ensembles are showing above. On the other hand, a very strong PNA could also waver the MJO to take the storm to the Northeast and keep it away from the Midwest, like the 18z GFS itself is showing.

FOR NOW, i'm going to go with the ensembles, because I feel a consensus among a group is more powerful than a consensus among one person. I emphasize 'for now' because both parties I have shown here are putting up quite good arguments.

Any questions you have may be asked below in comments.
~Andrew

Saturday, January 28, 2012

Thunderstorm Outlook for January 29, 2012

Discussion...
A clipper system will quickly move across the Plains through the Lower Great Lakes, putting down some light snows. Tomorrow, on Sunday, the low pressure system should move into the Eastern Great Lakes and produce some showers and thunderstorms along a cold front. This cold front will turn into a weak bowing segment. For that reason. . .have decided to put in the potential for gusty winds and small hail, as bowing segments are typically conductive for some gusty winds.
The threat should progress overnight into parts of the Northeast. However. . .confidence is lower as the model we are using (WRF) does not cover that timeframe.

ECMWF Projecting Ridge to Replace Alaskan Vortex

Click for larger image
0z ECMWF Hour 240 500mb height anomalies
The 0z ECMWF at hour 240 is projecting a very strong ridge to be drifting northeast from the US and possibly into Alaska. From there, things get interesting. If the ridge propels the vortex southeast, where it is currently going, the big low could possibly move into the US. While that is a very long (if not impossible) shot, seeing the direction of the ridge and low system brought up that potential in my mind.
Either way, it looks like there are signs of a +NAO, -EPO in this image.
12z ECMWF Hour 240 500mb height anomalies
The 12z ECMWF has the ridge moving even further towards Alaska, with the trough weaker but still present. The interesting thing is how the trough starts appearing to be trying to swing under the ridge, which would theoretically bring the trough down into the US. Additionally, the 12z ECMWF has a stronger -EPO and a -NAO.

Preliminary Severe Weather Forecast for Spring 2012

"This will be one to remember."
Last Spring, we saw the absolutely horrible April super outbreak of tornadoes, and this year, it looks like a similar situation may be setting up.
Let's start with the Gulf of Mexico.

Caribbean Temperature Anomalies
The Gulf of Mexico is at least 1 degree above normal in many spots. While that may seem like nothing, it actually may have huge implications. You see, the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is supposed to cool down over the winter from Arctic Air coming south. However, as we have seen, this winter has been very warm. We have already seen tornadoes with fatalities this year. I see that as a very bad precursor indication.
If the GOM, by some chance, is somehow able to stay as warm as it is (which is unlikely given my FEB-MAR outlook posted today at 12:00 PM CST on the day of this post's publishing), the situation could get worse. But if we start seeing some more cold and snow, the GOM may cool down a bit. I think it is too late for the GOM to cool down to normal levels for this time of year given how far we are into 'winter'. With this added GOM warmth, expect to see more moisture and instability associated with storms drawing energy from the Gulf this spring. Additional warmth may also be present, making for a bigger temperature gradient between the cold fronts that produce severe storms in the country this spring, therefore making the storms stronger.

Typical Jet Stream in the Spring
The jet stream in the spring usually factors out to hot weather in the South, wet weather in the Northwest, and cooler weather in the northern tier of the country. The area where the severe storms usually form is in the Plains through the Midwest. As the arrows show the warm, moist air being drawn up, this is the problem I mentioned earlier with more moisture and instability that could make for more severe weather. That added moisture/instability being slammed by the cold, dry air would certainly make for a very robust situation if everything went 'good' for severe storms.
Here's our very preliminary forecast. Keep in mind this is not set in stone at all and has a lot of changes that will need to be made in the long term.

February 2-4 Potential Snow Event (Issued 1-28-12)

This is hour 156 of today's 12z GFS Ensembles. This is the timeframe we are looking at for a potential snowstorm in the East US. As we can see, there are two camps: One that brings all precip north into the Midwest (North Camp) and one that has the most precipitation down south in this page (South Camp). For a simple reference, let's count out how many ensemble are in which camp.
(Out of 12 ensembles)

NORTH CAMP: 8 ensembles (67%)
SOUTH CAMP: 4 ensembles (33%)

Now, of course, many things will change- that was simply for just a glance at it.
Something that makes me think about this storm is checking out the teleconnections.
Here's the PNA forecast.
Most Recent PNA Forecasts
Positive PNA Phase
In a positive phase of the PNA, a ridge sets up over the West US, and the storm track is diverted into the Southwest and then either into the Midwest or Northeast. The forecasts for the PNA in this timeframe (Feb. 2-4) are a strong positive, meaning that the effects of the +PNA will be more pronounced. This is shown in many of the ensembles of the 12z GFS. You can see the +PNA by tracing the red rain/snow line through Canada in the West US then diving back south into the East US.

Something else we can use to check out the storm is the NAO and AO. In the positive phase of the NAO, we see warm temperatures across the East US. The big snowstorms usually fall during a negative NAO. In the ensembles, we have checked and see a -NAO developing on the forecasts. This would bring the biggest snows to the Northeast, theoretically.

The AO is forecast to be negative during this timeframe, which would supply the cold air as well as increase chances for snow for the East US.

But here's where the buck stops for the Northeast's big snow possibility: The MJO.
MJO Forecast
Basically, when the MJO is closest to the edge of the image, the effects of each phase are stronger. Right now, we are in Phase 6. The Green line is the GFS Ensemble forecasts for the MJO, enhanced by individual ensemble forecasts shown in the yellow lines. The current forecast by the GFS Ensembles and other models are to have the MJO go into a strong phase 7 around the time of the storm. Here are the temperature and precipitation effects of a Phase 7 MJO.
Temperature Anomaly

Precipitation Anomaly
The Northeast is typically dry during Phase 7 and phase 6 (in case the MJO ends up in Phase 6 during the storm). That would be a major blow to the forecast, seeing as the MJO would be at a strong level and therefore could deter the AO/PNA/NAO effects. For temperature, Phase 6 and 7 both involve the East US being warmer than usual.

My Thoughts
In my opinion, I think that while some indices are pointing toward a total Northeast Snowstorm, i'm going to have to go with a Midwest/Northeast shared snow event for now. Based on the strong MJO combined with a strong PNA and subsequent -NAO/-AO, it seems likely that the end result will be a shared snowstorm with these two regions. Another thing that enhances my shared snowstorm theory is how the ensembles are more unified with that idea than a pure northeast snowstorm. In this winter where the models are doing poorly, I find much more confidence in a group consensus rather than just one person's idea of a scenario.

Next System Coming into the Country


Increased water vapor indicates that the next system we are watching is coming into the country. It looks like the jet stream is pulling this system down into the Plains. Because it is a clipper, we will be seeing the system quickly progress east and put down an inch or two across the upper Great Lakes region. The arrows are representing the shield of precipitation, not the direction is is going.
The clipper system will be very progressive, so any accumulations will be 1-3 inches. 

February-March Outlook

Before you read on, bear with me when I say this: This isn't going to be one of those overhype, scream-in-your-face posts practically forcing you to accept that winter is still coming, nor is it going to be an ultimate despair-based moan-and-groan tale of how the world will be a sauna for the rest of eternity.
No. This will be a fair-based, tell-it-like-it-is description of how the rest of winter will turn out to be.

FEBRUARY-MARCH
I know I have been proclaiming a cold and snowy February, but this is the first time I am now confident that there will be a cold and snowy pattern coming in.
This is my final prediction. I will not be changing it.


The Pacific North American pattern (PNA) has been in a positive phase for much of the winter- but not correctly matching up with other teleconnections (AO, NAO). As a result, we have not seen the cold and snow. A negative PNA sets up high pressure over the East and a trough in the West- something that has been very common this winter. However, the latest forecasts are calling for a +PNA to develop. A +PNA would result in the opposite of a -PNA.
As we have been seeing, the potential vorticity readings from the North Hemisphere way up by the Arctic Circle have been unstable recently. What I am seeing- and believe is true- is that this potential vorticity will start to be pushed down towards the US as a ridge of sorts sets up. The reason I believe a ridge will set up is because we have seen at least one ridge present in recent weeks up in the Arctic Circle- they just haven't been in proper places to get the storms into the US.
But it's not all in the PNA. It is very much a roll of the dice- certain teleconnections have to combine to make for a certain scenario. With the PNA going positive and the NAO/AO going negative, I think there is at least a chance we see cold and snow.

As for the AO/NAO, take a look at the past several weeks of observation.
We have affixed it with trends.
Just looking at the graphs easily shows how the pattern has changed in the last month. My belief is this: Now that the pattern has changed, I don't believe it will be changing back during February. Now that it has happened (albeit quietly), I just don't find it in the cards for the AO/NAO to spike back into positive territory, and the latest model forecasts even show that it will stay negative in the short term.

People have been trying to use analogues of years to compare to this one in order to figure out what the rest of winter will be like. I think that is just not a good technique this winter. As everyone reading this knows, an incredible amount of defined and undefined records have been set, from temperatures to how many times you shoveled your driveway. That's why I think people have let their guard down.
I have posted about how Tom Skilling (WGN Chicago Meteorologist) has said how winters with comparatively lower snow and warm temps have ended up back-loaded with cold and snow. That is one deal with analogues I am willing to believe. While everyone is comparing analogues with similar things already observed, I think that there is something different that is crucial to these forecasts.
Even though Tom Skilling posted that particular forecast for Chicago, Illinois alone, I think it applies to much of the rest of the East US.

My Thoughts
I believe February will be at least snowier. I think there is not enough evidence to prove otherwise, as we have already seen the pattern change. it has been shown in the AO/NAO and the PNA, among other things. The pattern should get stormier as the +PNA directs storms to a Panhandle Hooker flow and brings strong low pressure systems from the Plains to Great Lakes/Midwest and Ohio Valley.
The reason I focus on the PNA is because my confidence in the AO/NAO being negative (for at least the first week or two of February) is fairly high. A NAO/AO/PNA favorable combo may match up just right to make for a cold and snowy February.
If you have any local questions, you may ask them.

Severe Weather Outlook for Spring will be issued at 5:00 PM CST Today


Friday, January 27, 2012

February 3 Possible Severe Weather

The GFS Model is predicting some heavy rain and thunderstorms in the Southeast. The way the heavy precipitation (in red) is shown makes me think that this could be a MCS (mesoscale convective system) that could spawn some intense thunderstorms with hail and damaging winds.
Confidence remains low, but we will closely watch this situation.

February 4 Possible Snowfall

The GEM model is showing snow on February 4th for the Ohio Valley. While it may seem heavy, we have equated 15mm out to about half an inch of liquid, which would equate to 5 inches of snow.. However, seeing just how massive and huge this storm is, I would not dispute the GEM showing a higher amount than is shown.
My confidence is very low, and this is only just a mention of a possible snowfall.
Questions may be asked in comments.

Stratospheric Warming Update: Grim Outlook

1mb level temperatures
Discussion...
Recent stratosphere prognosis is a grim one upon observation of recent stratospheric temperatures. Image above displays 1mb temperatures. Looking at this image, it is apparent that significant cooling in the stratosphere has occurred, even leading to the erase of this winter's previous sudden stratospheric warming. This is only a small slice of the cake. . .as the 1mb level is just the top of the stratosphere. There remains a lot to look over.
70mb Temperatures
70mb temperatures show signs of encouragement, as the big thing about stratospheric warming is to try to get it as close to the surface as possible. At this time. . .we are seeing a warming event come over the 70mb level in the stratosphere. I do anticipate it to peak in the next week. . .and possibly see some cooling as the cooler anomalies in the upper levels of the stratosphere may try to propagate down into the lower levels.
Analysis of temperature anomalies by heights
The cooler air anomalies are shown well in the zonal analysis, with -12≥ temperature anomalies being found from 1mb down through the 5mb level. Do not be deceived. . .as we have found cooling to still be occurring down to the 50mb level. . .leaving only the 70mb level to be the last sign of encouragement in the current stratospheric analysis.


My Thoughts
I expect cooling to continue from the 1mb level into the 50mb levels, which are currently experiencing cooling, and possibly propagate down to the 70mb level. Seeing the peak of the current warming in the 70mb level coming on soon, I would not be surprised to find a cooling trend put a dent in the recent warming at that level.
As a consequence from all this cooling. . .my winter outlook is grim. This warming will not come soon enough to provide any pattern change in February. The best I am hoping for is cold shots following storms. I still am expecting snowstorms to occur, but not with the cold that would typically be in place. Therefore. . .I believe ice storm risks are increased.
I will have a February-March outlook out tomorrow at 12:00 PM CST. For those banking on my colder and snowier outlook. . .new day, new outlook. . .

Upcoming Forecasts in the next Few Months


Stratosphere update delayed until 5:00 PM CDT

We sincerely apologize.

Stratospheric Warming Update Today

We will update at 4:00 PM CST on the recent stratospheric cooling and possible warming.

Thursday, January 26, 2012

CFS Weekly Forecasts- 1/26/12

Weeks 3 and 4 (top to bottom) 500mb height forecasts 
The latest CFS v2 weekly forecasts are showing  very interesting scenario developing in the next 3-4 weeks. Before I go further, remember that this is very long range and therefore will most certainly change, possibly drastically.
We will focus on week 4 (bottom image). In the last days of February, we are seeing a -NAO and a ridge over Alaska. The -NAO is characterized by a strong ridge right near Greenland (the gray/beige color embedded in the dark red). At this time, the NAO looks to be west based, which is not the most ideal conditions for a snowstorm, but still a starting point considering the lack of -NAO days this winter.
There is also a ridge forecasted to be in Alaska. This ridge has only been observed a couple times at most this winter, and in the times it was observed we saw some cold and snow. I would not be surprised to see a big snowstorm for the Northeast in the last week of February if this verifies, as the combination of a -NAO/Alaskan Ridge end up with a trough in place offshore the Northeast (the green region).

Again, this is all very uncertain, but it could be a step in the right direction.

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Note

Just something I posted on my Facebook page for y'all to think over...

For those thinking my latest winter update was just for kicks, go ahead and think that. But here's the plain fact- a pattern change of sorts has already happened, shown by the falling GLAAM/NAO/AO, rising PNA, weak polar vortex and unstable potential vorticity, sudden stratospheric warmings, and more cold and snow than December. The question is if this pattern change will continue to come together, which is still in debate.

The reason I have not told you is because the details on if the pattern had changed were still being worked out. 

Why the Models are So Bad-- And What the Rest of Winter Holds in Store

For all the avid meteorologists out there, we all know the models have been horrible this winter. The thing we don't know is why. I believe I have an answer for you.
A common piece of knowledge is that change takes time to process. The same goes for computer models. What they may be indicating is an upcoming pattern change, and are thus having a difficult time forecasting. Or it could just be a bad model winter. But i'm having a gut feeling that the latter option is more unlikely.

So what does the rest of winter hold in store? Well, let's take a look overseas first.
First 8 days of GFS Forecast temperature anomaly

Last 8 days of GFS Forecast temperature anomaly

What I have found over the years is that weather in Europe is similarly reciprocated in the US a short time after. Looking at the 16 day forecast temperature anomalies produced by the GFS, the model is forecasting Europe to go into a freeze of sorts, with widespread anomalies of -5 degrees or more.
So what does temperatures in Europe have to do with our weather? As explained above, Europe weather can be reciprocated into our weather. If that holds true, I believe our pattern change is a short time away, which would also spell the model's inconsistency problems out.

CMC AO Forecast
I am using the CMC as a forecast because, as you see, it has much less flawed runs against verification than other models do. That is, there are less gray lines (past forecasts) leading far away from the verification, thus increasing my confidence in the forecast. Recently, the Arctic Oscillation has been negative- a sign of the changing atmosphere. The stratosphere and associated polar vortex have taken big hits recently and are staggering around, barely able to be held up on their own. If we can get one more good SSW (sudden stratospheric warming), I believe this cold will be forced to come south very quickly as the polar vortex breaks. The negative AO also supports cold air in the US, which could be the reciprocation of the cold Europe land mass.

CMC NAO Forecast
I am using the CMC for the same reasons i used the CMC for the AO, and those reasons are mentioned above. The CMC tells that the NAO is negative and should continue to be that way for a while. I find that the NAO and AO are very closely related, and thus it is possible for both to go negative simultaneously. That appears to have happened in this scenario. These AO and NAO are only short range forecasts, and while they appear to not contribute to the rest of winter forecast, they do. We have seen less strong positive days and more negative days of the AO and NAO this month than last- a sign that the pattern regime holding in the warmth and holding out the cold is weakening.

My thoughts
I'm still thinking a change to more snow and cold is in the cards. I find it way too early to throw in the towel on this winter, especially with these latest AO, NAO, Temp. Anomaly forecasts and data presented here today. I think it is still possible a good Nor'easter will come around. When it does, it could be "major". As for the storm track, the jet stream should shift at least slightly south, bringing Chicago, Des Moines, Detroit into possible target zones for snowstorms.

If you have any questions please ask below.

Tornado Warning- Alexandria, Louisiana


876 
WFUS54 KHGX 251243
TORHGX
TXC051-477-251315-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0009.120125T1243Z-120125T1315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
643 AM CST WED JAN 25 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  BURLESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
  NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 715 AM CST

* AT 637 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO   
  WAS LOCATED 11 MILES WEST OF LAKE SOMERVILLE DAM... MOVING   
  NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THERE IS A SECOND POSSIBLE TORNADO LOCATED 5 MILES 
  SOUTHWEST OF CALDWELL.

* LOCATIONS IN THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  SOMERVILLE AND CALDWELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN THE INTERIOR HALLWAY OR
A ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET ON THE LOWEST LEVEL OF A STURDY BUILDING. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF YOU ARE INSIDE A MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...EVACUATE THEM
IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING. AS A LAST
RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR
HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CST FOR THE WARNED AREA.

&&

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3066 9665 3034 9630 3014 9673 3019 9676
      3020 9675 3024 9675 3025 9673 3026 9669
      3029 9666 3031 9669 3031 9674 3039 9680
TIME...MOT...LOC 1241Z 229DEG 45KT 3030 9669

$$

New Watches to be Issued Soon

Louisiana and Texas will be involved in the watches.

Winter Update This Afternoon

An update on the rest of winter will be released at 4:00 PM CST

Tornado Indicated On Ground

825
WWUS54 KHGX 251418
SVSHGX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
818 AM CST WED JAN 25 2012

TXC185-225-313-339-471-251445-
/O.CON.KHGX.TO.W.0013.000000T0000Z-120125T1445Z/
GRIMES TX-HOUSTON TX-MADISON TX-MONTGOMERY TX-WALKER TX-
818 AM CST WED JAN 25 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 AM CST FOR WALKER...
MONTGOMERY...MADISON...HOUSTON AND GRIMES COUNTIES...

AT 812 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF
RICHARDS...OR 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HUNTSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
35 MPH. A SECOND RADAR INDICATED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 12
MILES SOUTHEAST OF MADISONVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATHS OF THESE TORNADOES INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO CRABBS PRAIRIE...HUNTSVILLE STATE PARK AND HUNTSVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN THE INTERIOR HALLWAY OR
A ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET ON THE LOWEST LEVEL OF A STURDY BUILDING. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF YOU ARE INSIDE A MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...EVACUATE THEM
IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING. AS A LAST
RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR
HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CST.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3121 9565 3094 9551 3062 9541 3052 9585
3088 9587 3106 9593 3111 9584 3110 9578
3114 9578
TIME...MOT...LOC 1415Z 247DEG 31KT 3064 9576

$$


--

NWS Warnings Provided by AllisonHouse.com

Tornado Likely on Ground

254
WFUS54 KHGX 251323
TORHGX
TXC185-473-477-251400-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0011.120125T1323Z-120125T1400Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
723 AM CST WED JAN 25 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN GRIMES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 800 AM CST

* AT 719 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WASHINGTON... MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
PLANTERSVILLE AND NAVASOTA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN THE INTERIOR HALLWAY OR
A ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET ON THE LOWEST LEVEL OF A STURDY BUILDING. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF YOU ARE INSIDE A MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...EVACUATE THEM
IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING. AS A LAST
RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR
HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CST FOR THE WARNED AREA.

&&

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...
OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3038 9618 3037 9615 3036 9615 3038 9614
3038 9612 3040 9611 3050 9589 3037 9582
3024 9584 3019 9628 3031 9633
TIME...MOT...LOC 1322Z 252DEG 35KT 3028 9625

$$


--

NWS Warnings Provided by AllisonHouse.com