Thursday, July 28, 2011

Tropical Storm Don: Forecast 24 Hour Precipitation for Texas


Tropical Storm Don: July 28 Evening Models Overview


Most models are coming together to say south Texas will be impacted in a direct hit fashion but effects will be felt in some areas more north. That's is more up in the air though.
You can see all information on Don by clicking below on the label Tropical Storm Don or clicking on the image at the top of the page called 'Track The Storm'.

Tropical Storm Don: Rainfall Forecast

Totals from Tropical Storm Don are going to be pretty high, up to 4 inches in a line in South Texas.
You can see all other information on Don by checking out the label below called Tropical Storm Don, or click the image at the top of the page saying 'track the storm'.

July 28- Evening Severe Weather Briefing

A mesoscale discussion was issued by the Storm Prediction Center this evening for portions of North Illinois, North Missouri and Southeast Iowa. The discussion made mention of how there was an increasing severe risk through early evening. The discussion above was valid until just after 7 pm CDT. The discussion expired on time. However, there is no watch to replace it. Seeing as how early evening is right about now, it would be a good statement to make in saying that there will likely not be severe thunderstorms if they don't develop by 9:00 PM CDT.
Visible satellite imagery shows a blossoming thunderstorm in Southeast Iowa. That is the only activity in the discussion area. While there are some storms in Central Missouri, those are not within what we will be discussing tonight. Clouds dominate North Illinois into South Wisconsin, back into Iowa and North Missouri.
Radar imagery shows the supposedly crazy storm seen blossoming on the visible satellite imagery in Iowa, but both this radar and the radar operated by our Mobile Storm Track Team (MSTT) indicate the storm is actually very weak. We don't yet have enough information to diagnose why the clouds look so intense on visible satellite, but we will find out.
The image above is of MUCAPE, or Most Unstable CAPE. This was what the SPC used for the mesoscale discussion at the top of the page. We see high values of CAPE in North IL, South IA and North MO.
We will keep watching the radars for further information.

July 28- Area where storms will develop

We have determined the area where we believe the storms will have the most effect on people tonight.
The map above is the MCS Maintenance, which is made up of over 340 MCS parameters.
The higher this parameter is indicates the more likelihood of the development and/or upkeep of a MCS (storm cluster).

2011-2012 Winter Forecast: Comparing Last Winter's Underwater Temps to Now

We did some research regarding 1 meter underwater temperatures in the ENSO regions, and decided to compare last winter's temperatures to this year's at current time of publishing.
We can see how cold the water was last year, when there was a strong La Nina in effect. This year, we can see how temperatures in the ENSO regions have decreased by 2 degrees Celsius in a span of 2 or 3 months. This rapid cooling is definitely an encouraging sign that a La Nina may be in the works for this winter.

July 28- Destabilizing atmosphere

The area outlined in blue is an area of unstable air at this time.
MUCAPE indices are already past 5000 j/kg as we watch for severe storms tonight.

We're watching the Rapid Refresh for these storms to form around 6 or earlier.
We expect these storms to congeal into a cluster, some cells with possibly strong structures. 

July 28: Tropical Storm Warning- Corpus Christi, TX


...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...

.NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COAST AND MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS...MCMULLEN...LIVE OAK...BEE...GOLIAD...VICTORIA...
DUVAL...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...ARANSAS...
REFUGIO AND CALHOUN.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SPECIFIED
AREAS.

ALL PERSONS IN THE WARNING AREAS SHOULD ALREADY HAVE
PREPARATIONS UNDERWAY TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

IN ORDER TO MAKE THE BEST DECISIONS...BE SURE THAT YOU UNDERSTAND
THE TERMINOLOGY AND DEFINITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE
EVENTS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DON WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.1N...LONGITUDE 90.1W. THIS WAS ABOUT 500 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARANSAS TX...OR ABOUT 490 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF PORT O`CONNOR TX. STORM MOTION WAS NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT
14 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 45 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED. A MORE DETAILED
STATEMENT WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO INITIATE
PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE PLAN SPECIFIC TO YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO ACTIVELY LISTEN FOR FORTHCOMING INFORMATION
FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT AGENCY.

MARINERS ARE URGED TO MAKE ALL NECESSARY PREPARATIONS TO RETURN
TO PORT...SEEK SAFE HARBOR...AND SECURE THEIR CRAFT. NOW IS THE
TIME TO INITIATE PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN
FOR TROPICAL SYSTEMS. MONITOR WEATHER BROADCASTS FOR CHANGES TO
THE LATEST FORECAST AND LISTEN FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI SHORTLY. IT WILL PROVIDE IMPORTANT
DETAILS REGARDING THE EVOLVING TROPICAL CYCLONE THREATS AND THEIR
POTENTIAL IMPACTS UPON THE AREA.

July 28: Tropical Storm Warning- Quintana, TX


...TROPICAL STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST...

.NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LAND LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE
UPPER TEXAS BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS...JACKSON...MATAGORDA AND BRAZORIA.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TEXAS BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SPECIFIED
AREAS.

ALL PERSONS IN THE WARNING AREAS SHOULD ALREADY HAVE
PREPARATIONS UNDERWAY TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

IN ORDER TO MAKE THE BEST DECISIONS...BE SURE THAT YOU UNDERSTAND
THE TERMINOLOGY AND DEFINITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE
EVENTS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 9 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DON WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.1N...LONGITUDE 90.1W. THIS WAS ABOUT 480 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MATAGORDA TX...OR ABOUT 460 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
FREEPORT TX. STORM MOTION WAS NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH. STORM
INTENSITY WAS 45 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED. A MORE DETAILED
STATEMENT WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH OR WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO
INITIATE PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN
SPECIFIC TO YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

FOR THOSE NEARBY...REVIEW YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN AND
BECOME READY TO ACT IF A WATCH OR A WARNING IS LATER ISSUED FOR
YOUR AREA.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO ACTIVELY LISTEN FOR FORTHCOMING INFORMATION
FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT AGENCY.

MARINERS ARE URGED TO MAKE ALL NECESSARY PREPARATIONS TO RETURN
TO PORT...SEEK SAFE HARBOR...AND SECURE THEIR CRAFT. NOW IS THE
TIME TO INITIATE PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN
FOR TROPICAL SYSTEMS. MONITOR WEATHER BROADCASTS FOR CHANGES TO
THE LATEST FORECAST AND LISTEN FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON SHORTLY. IT WILL PROVIDE IMPORTANT
DETAILS REGARDING THE EVOLVING TROPICAL CYCLONE THREATS AND THEIR
POTENTIAL IMPACTS UPON THE AREA.

TXZ235>237-291500-
/O.UPG.KHGX.TR.A.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KHGX.TR.W.1004.110728T1449Z-000000T0000Z/
JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-
949 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2011

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

July 28: Tropical Storm Watch- Corpus Christi, TX


TROPICAL STORM DON LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
538 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2011

...TROPICAL STORM DON CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST GULF
OF MEXICO...

.NEW INFORMATION...
THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. IF
THIS TRACK HOLDS TRUE...THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE THE BRUNT OF TROPICAL STORM DON.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
MCMULLEN...LIVE OAK...BEE...GOLIAD...VICTORIA...DUVAL...JIM
WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO...ARANSAS...REFUGIO AND
CALHOUN.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL
OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 4 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DON WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.0N...LONGITUDE 88.7W. THIS WAS ABOUT 620 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARANSAS TX...OR ABOUT 610 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF PORT OCONNOR TX. STORM MOTION WAS WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT
10 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 40 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
AT THIS TIME...EXPECT AN INCREASING THREAT OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BEGINNING AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. THESE
THREATS WILL THEN SHIFT INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 1 TO 3
INCHES WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS NEAR 5 INCHES POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE STORM`S TRACK. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO PROVIDE EXACT WIND AND SURGE FORECAST VALUES FOR SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS. A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY SOMEWHERE WITHIN SOUTH
TEXAS...LOCALIZED FLOODING AND MINOR FLOODING OF AREA BEACHES.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED
THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE
ISSUED.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...IT IS RECOMMENDED
THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR
EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A
BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE
IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

REGARDING THE COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI AROUND 11 AM CDT...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

TXZ242>247-291045-
/O.CON.KCRP.TR.A.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
538 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2011

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT HEIGHTS OF COMBINED
STORM SURGE AND TIDE WATERS FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS WITHIN THE
FORECAST AREA TO BE CAUSED BY TROPICAL STORM DON. MUCH DEPENDS ON
THE PRECISE SIZE...INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST. HOWEVER...BARRIER ISLAND BEACHES WILL LIKELY
BE INUNDATED WITH WATER REACHING INTO THE DUNES AND FLOODING
ACCESS ROADS.

July 28- Morning Atlantic Tropical Storm DON Discussion



Don appears to be on a collision course with South Texas.
This will bring a very big dent into the Texas Drought. It won't cure it, but the drought certainly will recede by some point.

More discussion as more info comes out at noon.

68,028 Lightning Strikes in 12 hours!

From 6 PM CDT to 6 AM, 68,028 lightning strikes were observed in the Chicagoland area from July 27-28.

July 27, 2011 Dubuque, IA Storms Q & A (Historic Rainfall)

An image of the storms from 9 PM CDT last night.
Q: How much rain fell last night?
A: Officially 7.47 via the NWS for yesterday's rain and not early this morning, but news sources indicate 10+ inches as a storm total.

Q: What are the effects?
A: Reports of water rescues, bridges flooded, etc.

Q: How did this happen?
A: The storms in Dubuque didn't stop because more kept forming behind the ones that were already moving through. We call this 'training' in the weather world. It is similar to what happened in Chicago several days ago.

Q: How long did the storms go on for?
A: At least 7 hours.